Using BaseballReference.com to Compare Baseball’s Young Stars to Past “Greats”

I was reading last weeks Sports Illustrated article on Carl Crawford and other prominent bag swipers and something caught my eye regarding Crawford:

“ Dude can also hit; according to Baseball-Reference.com, the 27-year-old Crawford is most statistically similar to Roberto Clemente at the same age.”

If you asked 100 people today if they would compare Carl Crawford to Roberto Clemente at any point of his career how many do you think would? I wondered how baseball-reference came up with this comparison and they have a nice little explanation.

Obviously comparing Clemente, who had 32 career stolen bases by age 27 to Crawford who has already stolen more then 32 bases in a season 6 times may seem a bit flawed. However comparisons to speedsters like Vince Coleman (didn’t put up the HR, RBI, or AVG. like Crawford) or Ricky Henderson (Had already stolen over 100 bases 3 times by 27, Crawford never more then 59) is flawed as well because it simply tries to compare today’s players to the “type” of player they are and not simply look at the stats.

I took some time to see who some of the top 30-under players of today compare to at that same age according to Baseball-Reference. Keep in mind that this deals with offensive statistics and makes almost no adjustment for defensive ability.

Joe Mauer (26) —————Shanty Hogan

Hogan was a catcher for the Boston Braves, New York Giants and Washington Senators between 1925-1937. By 26 he had hit over .300 four times. A career .295 hitter, his best season earned him a 10th place in balloting for the NL MVP in 1928. Apparently Hogan also had a vaudeville act with New York Giants 2B Andy Cohen who said that Hogan “could have been one of the best catchers ever…but he ate himself out of the big leagues.” Stay away from the oatmeal cream pies Joe, and we’ll be comparing you to someone better when your 30.

Albert Pujols (29) —————– Jimmie Foxx

Career .325 hitter, 534 Home Runs, 1922 RBI, 2 Championships, 9 time all-star, 3 MVP’s, won the triple crown in 1933, Hall of Famer….Jimmie Foxx was pretty good. The scary part is that Pujols will more then likely shatter all of Foxx’s numbers by the time he’s done.

Chase Utley (29) ————– Gabby Harnett

He played a different position then Utley (catcher) but baseball-reference think he was the type of hitter we see play 2B for the Phillies. The six time all-star and 1935 NL MVP; Hartnett was inducted into the Hall of Fame in 1955. Hartnett’s career really took off in his 30’s, and for Utley to be Hall of Fame material; he’ll need a solid next 10 years as well.

3B David Wright —————— Eric Chavez

6 time Gold Glove winner, Chavez had 3 100-RBI seasons and hit over 25 HR’s 5 times before he turned 27. He has played in 121 games total in the last 3 seasons due to injuries. If the New York version of Chavez stays healthy, his power numbers and gold gloves should keep him on the road to being a great third basemen.

SS Hanley Ramirez ——————————- Nomar Garciaparra

Please don’t forget how good Garciaparra was. I realize that Hanley Ramirez is a special talent that has the potential to be one of those unique 30/30 guys, but what Garciaparra did up until 30 is hard to duplicate at the Shortstop position. 164 Homeruns in 6 full seasons, two batting crowns (including one at .372), top-5 in doubles 5 times, and top-5 in triples 3 times. He was a consistent All-Star with a couple trips to the playoffs. Of course we all know what happens next to Nomar: the “bulking up”, the injuries, not playing in over 122 games since turning 30. So if I told Marlin fans that Hanley would be the next Nomar would they be happy?

OF Josh Hamilton ——————————–Bing Miller

Edmund “Bing “ Miller didn’t play in the majors until he turned 26, just like Josh Hamilton. Although he only hit over 20 HR’s once, Miller had a .311 career average and compiled 992 RBI’s in 16 seasons (1921-1936) primarily with the Philadelphia Athletics. Obviously Hamilton started his MLB career at 26 for different reasons (Miller was a converted pitcher), and he clearly has more potential for power numbers, yet I would be surprised if he could come close to putting up the type on longevity that Miller was able to.

OF Ryan Braun —————————— Ralph Kiner / Danny Tartabull

Braun is the only player to have two players come up as most like him at this age. One is a 1-time All-Star who put up good not great power numbers over 14 MLB seasons. The other is a Hall of Famer, 6-time All-Star who hit over 107 more HR’s then the previous player and did it in 4 fewer seasons. Hall of Famer or run of the mill power hitter, no pressure Ryan.

OF Curtis Granderson—————————–Reggie Sanders

When I saw Reggie Sanders name come up for Granderson I was a little surprised. As a Tigers fan I see Granderson as a potential star, and I see Reggie Sanders as…. an average MLB corner outfielder. But if you compare their stats, Sanders hits for a better average, has better power, and steals more bases. Granderson…hits a lot of triples. Obviously you get a much better fielder with Curtis, but with the Tigers struggling to score runs and protect their AL Central lead, this makes me sad.

DH/1B Miguel Cabrerea ———————– Ken Griffey Jr.

I knew there was a reason I was in love with Miggy. Of the top-10 players compared to Miguel at this age, 5 are HOF’s, and 2 will be (Griffey and Pujols). Playing in Miami and Detroit is usually not the recipe to gaining national popularity and I think the average fan doesn’t know how unbelievable Miggy is until you compare his numbers to someone like young Griffey. Junior didn’t start having his 50+ HR, 140+ RBI seasons until his late 20’s so if Cabrera wants to continue this comparison he needs to reach an even higher level in the next couple of years. But from 20-25 years old, the two are extremely comparable.

Violent J

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