2007: The Year of the Passer

It should come as no surprise that Tom Brady took home the NFL’s MVP, with 49 out of 50 first place votes, as well as the AP Offensive Player of the Year. He had a spectacular season and managed to break the single season TD record for a QB while leading his team to a perfect regular season. Very impressive stuff But is this season as impressive as it seems when you put it in context?

Simply put, 2007 was the year of the pass. Not a single running back broke the 1,500 yard mark, the first time that has happened since 1993. Seven quarterbacks managed to break the 4,000 yard barrier, which is the most in one season in NFL history, in a season where 60 different quartbacks stated games for NFL teams. Drew Brees even managed to set the single season record for pass attempts with 652.

The real question is why was this such a prolific year for the passer. You could argue that injuries to starting running backs forced teams to go to the air at a record pace. Take a look at the top 10 rushers in each of the last five years. The totals of the leading rushers in 2007 are very low compared to the top 10 in each of the previous five years. (2007, 2006, 2005, 2004, 2003, 2002) You may be able to explain these stats by pointing to the trend among NFL teams to use two features backs rather than one workhorse. However, that does not explain why the passing totals would still be so high.

Tom Brady’s passing numbers are still historic even when put in context, but these prolific passing numbers may signal a shift in the scheme for offensive coordinators around the league. Unless, this year is a complete anomaly, and it appears that it is not if you look at the growing number of 4,000 yard passers in the last 10 years, we could be in for an even bigger aerial circus in 2008. It may even, GASP, effect fantasy rankings next year. The Patriots’ success with only an average rushing attack (13th in the League) may entice other teams to use the pass even more to set up the run rather that vice versa. Not every team has a Tom Brady slinging the football, or Randy Moss to catch it, but that won’t stop them from attempting to replicate the Pats 2007 aerial attack.

The Angry T

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