In spite of one very important missed free throw, Derrick Rose put on a show in the National Championship game on Monday.  He scored 18 points, dished out 8 assists, and grabbed six boards.  If not for a Mario Chalmers fade away three pointer, Derrick Rose would have been your Final Four MOP. Even in a loss, it was one of the best freshman performances in the history of the NCAA Championship game.  Below, he take a look at the Top Five Freshman performances in the NCAA Championship game.

5. Arnie Farran – Utah – 1944 Championship –  Ferrin 22 points in a 42-40 victory over Dartmouth.  Ferrin, along with Carmelo Anthony and Pervis Ellison, is the one of three freshman to ever be named Most Outstanding Player of the Final Four. (#22 is Ferrin)

4. Mike Bibby – Arizona – 1997 Championship – Bibby had 19 points, 9 rebounds, 4 assists, 3 steals in Arizona’s national championship game win over Kentucky.

3. Greg Oden – Ohio State -2007 Championship –  Greg Oden had 25 points, 12 rebounds in a losing effort in last years’ championship game. 

2. Carmelo Anthony –  Syracuse -2003 Championship –  Melo’ had 20 points, 10 rebounds in a championship game win over the Kirk Hinrich and Nick Collison led Kansas Jayhawks.

1. Pervis Ellison – 1986 Championship – “Never Nervous” had a dominant 25 points, 11 rebounds, 2 steal performance in a championship game win over Johnny Dawkins and the Duke Blue Devils.

Well, we can look forward to seeing Derrick Rose in a Memphis Grizzlies uniform next year.  Watch up Western Conference central division, here come Juan Carlos Navarro, Darko Milicic and Derrick Rose. That kind of three headed monster would make Bill Wennington, Bill Cartwright, and Luc Longley proud.
The Angry T

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As I watched the opening round tournament games on Thursday, I found myself listening to the announcer and muttering “That’s what she said,” after a ton of potentially dirty comments.  I decided to keep a running diary of the best  “That’s what she said,” moments, from the tournament’s first weekend.  Here they are:

“He tries to hit from long distance.”

“He gives one hard dribble and then rises up and scores.”

“You’ve got guys pulling each other down to the ground.”

“He overshoots it there.”

“He gets inside, lets it loose and drops it in with the left hand.”

“He’s quicker than you would think.”

“Oho, what a finish!”

“There will be lots of loose balls…”

“Chism can hurt you with the deep shot. He can bury you inside, but he can also step out and hurt you.”

“…and they will go at it, for five more minutes.”

“Tough entry, and then the give away.”

“They have not been hammered inside. I think most people thought they would be.”

“Jordan has really been laying the meat on people.”

“He has to get inside and make something happen.”

“He takes it right to the rack… easily.”

“What a nice stroke!”

“He performs a spin move out of the box.”

“He’s got to watch his rear there.”

“Johnson couln’t grab it himself”

“He gets hit in the right on the arm just as he is about to shoot”

“Denial is one thing, but ‘undressing’ someone like that is completely different”

“After a sub-par performance on Friday, he is really stroking it now.”

“Taj Finger with the tip…And Finger puts it in.”

“You have to recognize how packed it is inside. You have to man up when you go inside.”

“You can’t be tired when you’re scoring.”

“He’s got a gear that no one else has. Absolutely quick.”

“Pitt is going small now…really small.”

“Tom Izzo has been around the block a few times.”

Even the PGA got involved on Sunday:

(After Adam Scott hit the cup with an approach shot)

“It’s really unlucky that it just didn’t stick in the hole.  It could have just wedged itself in there. It could have been a Julius Erving Slam Dunk.”

“It’s gotta be tough hitting at the damaged cup, that thing is just ripped.”

Just filthy stuff on television these days.

The Angry T

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p>The hopes of hater nation rested on the Belmont Bruins today.  But unlike the Virginia Commonwealth Rams one year ago, the Bruins could not satisfy the insatiable lust of the Duke Haters.  Hater nation, don’t misconstrue my words, I wanted the Blue Devils to go down in flames just like all of you.  They are simply a hateable team, not because their brash play, trash talk, or off the court shenanigans.  They don’t do much of any of that, but they do win, and they do get 3000 times more press than your favorite team, and that makes them as hateable as teenage pregnancy to the vast majority of the populous. 

As sports fan, it is almost as fun to dislike your rival team as it to like your favorite team.   By no means are Krzyzewski and company the only hateable characters in the tournament.  I found a bunch of squads that make my cringe when I think about them.  So, with Duke as the most hated by far, let’s run down the next five most hateable schools still alive in the tournament.

5. Tennessee – It’s not that I don’t like the team, because I do, especially Ramar Smith and Chris Lofton.  However, I can’t get over how much I dislike Bruce Pearl.  Whether he is sweating, painting himself, or grabbing sideline reporters, the guy just flat rubs me the way.  (Erin feels the same way)

4. Pittsburgh – I love the Pittsburgh basketball team, but I hate the way the media portrays them. 

“Well Jay, Pittsburgh is just one of those hard-working, blue-collar teams.”

Blue-Collar? Does Sam Young clock in at the steel mill after games?  I must have missed when Levance Fields and DeJuan Blair put up drywall at halftime.  What the hell does blue collar even mean in the context of basketball? Does it simply mean that they play hard, and playing hard is a characteristic of blue collar workers?  Are there white collar teams? 

“Well Jay, Arizona is one of those soft, white collar teams.  They refuse to go to the floor for a loose ball and they often delegate shooting or passing responsibilities to less experienced players because they feel those activities are beneath them.”

3. Gonzaga – They helped me answer the age old question: How many times can a team be a Cinderellla before I start hating them? The answer turned out to be right around five.  That “We are just happy to be here,” look doesn’t fool me Mark Few.  You aren’t happy to be here, you want to win, but you know that you can’t, and that kills you, no matter how much your get stroked by the ESPN and the like. (I do love Gus Johnson though)

2. UConn – Too much television coverage could make Mother Teresa hateble and UConn is a victim of this phenomenon.  No one needed to see as much Josh Boone as we were privy to in his time in Stoors.   They also have that intangible hateable quality, where you aren’t sure why you dislike them, but you are very sure you do. (Plus, I hate Calhoun’s recruiting tactics. Pre-school is a little to young to start sending letter. See Below)

1. North Carolina – The Tar Heels follow closely behind Duke in national level of hatred.  They combine too much coverage, with always being good, with a heaping helping of Dickie V love.  Those three things are the holy trinity in terms of what you need to be hated in college basketball.  It also helps to have Tyler Hansborough.  “Oh, he tries so hard. What a motor.” Why is he working so hard? What is he trying to prove? Slow down bro, you are making the rest of us look bad.

The Angry T

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By the time you’re reading this, I am guessing you’ve probably already filled out 4 or 5 brackets by now.  March is the time Americans stand proudly together to show their love for basketball and illegal gambling.  Despite office pools and national contests that wield money and prizes in the thousands, people will often make their picks with no real research.  While many picks don’t take that much to figure out, selecting those three or four first round upsets is what separates the winners from the losers.  I spent the last two hours looking at the past first round upsets (11 seeds and higher) of the last five years.  This beat my previous record for researching an article by one hour and fifty-five minutes.  As you probably know, no 16 seed has ever won, so do yourself a favor and pencil those #1 seeds into the next round.  8-9 and 7-10 games usually have no rhyme or reason to which side to take, so you’re on your own there.  But for those other games, the games that can separate you from your competition come Final Four time; this should cast some light on who your picks should be.  While some of these conclusions are obvious to many, perhaps they can still provide you with some information on this year’s field to help you make informed picks.

1.  Last teams in from major conferences normally don’t do well in upset role.

Here is what conferences the Cinderella’s have come from in the last 5 years (with this years 11-15 seeds in brackets):

MAC (none)
Conference USA (2) (none)
Horizon (3) (None)
Big West (Cal State Fullerton)
Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference (Siena)
Patriot (American)
American East (UMBC)
Big Sky (none)
Colonial  Athletic Association (2) (George Mason)
Southland (none)
Missouri Valley (None)
Big South (Winthrop)

This tells us 2 very important things:

• Upsets can happen from any conference; however, if you haven’t pulled one off in the last 5 seasons, then your conference is probably not considered as strong as the conferences that have.
• 11-16 seeds from major conferences don’t have good track records in recent years.  This is bad news for some of the last teams from the Big 10, 12, ACC, SEC and Big East.

Possible Upset : See list above
Bad News for: #12 Villanova, #11 Kansas State, #11 Kentucky, #14 Georgia, #11 Baylor

2.  Cinderella teams must have shown they can win on the road

While nearly every Cinderella team that makes the tournament has shown it can win in its own building, NCAA tournament games are played on the road for everyone.  Every team who has been able to upset a higher seed the last 5 years has had at least a .500 record on the road that season.

Possible Upset: Kent State (8-6 Away), St. Joes (11-7), Boise State (12-3), American (10-7), Siena (8-6), Cal St Fullerton (9-5), UMBC (9-7), Temple (7-5), Oral Roberts (8-6), Cornell (10-4), Western Kentucky (10-3), Baylor (6-4), Belmont (9-5), George Mason (7-7)

Bad News for: Winthrop (7-8), Villanova (4-7), Kansas State (3-5), Kentucky (4-6),  San Diego (5-8), Austin Peay (8-8), Georgia (2-8),

3.  Cinderella’s are led by upperclassmen

Bucknell over Kansas is the only upset in the last five years by a team that started less then three upperclassman.  Most teams that do pull off the upset start a minimum of two seniors, and often as many as three or four.  Last year’s two upsets (VCU and Winthrop) featured these classes in their starting five: five Seniors, four Juniors, one Sophmore, zero Freshmen. 

Possible Upset: Cal State Fullerton (4 seniors, 1 Junior), American (5 upperclassmen), Boise State (4 Seniors), St.Joes (4 Upperclassmen), Winthrop (3 Seniors), George Mason (4 upperclassmen), Temple (3 Upperclassmen), Oral Roberts (4 Seniors, 1 Junior), Austin Peay (5 Upperclassmen), Western Kentucky (3 Seniors),  Baylor (4 upperclassmen), Georgia (4 upperclassmen), Belmont (4 upperclassmen)

Bad News for: UMBC (1 senior, 2 Juniors), Kansas State (3 frosh, 2 senior), Siena (3 Sophomores, 2 Juniors), Villanova (0 Seniors), Kentucky (2 Seniors, 3 Soph), Cornell (2 Upperclassmen), San Diego (0 Seniors)

4.  Almost all Cinderellas are usually 11 or 12 seeds

It is hard to sometimes play it safe when picking a bracket, but if there’s money involved it is in your best interest to just select 3 or 4 upsets in the first round.  Take a look at how much madness has actually occurred each of the last 10 years:

2007- 2 upsets: both 11 seeds
2006- 6 upsets: 2 ‘11’ seeds, 2 ‘12’ seeds, 1 ’13’ seed, 1 ‘14’ seed
2005- 4 upsets: 1 ‘11’ seed, 1 ‘12’ seed, 1 ’13’ seed, 1 ‘14’ seed
2004- 2 upsets: both 12 seeds
2003- 3 upsets: 1 ‘11’ seed, 1 ‘12’ seed, 1 ’13’ seed
2002- 6 upsets: 2 ‘11’ seeds, 3 ’12’ seeds, 1 ‘13’ seed
2001-7 upsets: 2 ‘11’ seeds, 2 ‘12’ seeds, 2 ‘13’ seeds, 1 ‘15’ seed
2000- 1 upset: 11 seed
1999-4 upsets: 2 ‘12’ seeds, 1 ’13’ seed, 1 ‘14’ seed
1998-5 upsets: 2 ‘11’ seeds, 1 ‘12’ seed, 1 ‘13’ seed, 1 ’14’ seed’

Total Average: 4 Upsets a year
1.3 are 11 seeds
1.4 are 12 seeds
1.3 are 13, 14 and 15 seeds
 
So in the last 10 years of tournament play, the records for each seed in first round action are:
11 Seeds: 13-27
12 Seeds:14-26
13 Seeds: 8-32
14 Seeds: 4-36
15 Seeds: 1-39

Stick to the 11 and 12 seed games, and maybe one 13 seed if you see a match-up you really like.

Possible Upset:
11 seeds: Baylor, St. Joes, Kentucky, Kansas State
12 seeds: Temple, Western Kentucky, Villanova, George Mason

Bad News for: Everyone else

Based on this research and the average number of upsets each year at around 4, here are my four best bets for an upset come Thursday and Friday:

#12 GEORGE MASON over # 5 NOTRE DAME
#11 ST. JOES over # 6 OKLAHOMA
#12 WESTERN KENTUCKY over #5 DRAKE
#13 ORAL ROBERTS over #4 PITTSBURGH

Be sure to catch my next article next week entitled “I am a college basketball genius, bow before me!” or “Who stole my alias last week and made those terrible predictions?”

-Violent J

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